California’s 13th District race: Adam Gray’s $5 million spending advantage over Trump-backed challenger
Democratic incumbent Rep. Lincoln, endorsed by President Trump, trails Gray in both cash on hand and total fundraising.
Democratic incumbent Rep. Lincoln, endorsed by President Trump, trails Gray in both cash on hand and total fundraising.
Key numbers
| Stat | Figure | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gray’s total campaign fundraising | $5 million | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Kevin Lincoln’s total campaign fundraising | $2.89 million | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Adam Gray’s cash on hand | $1.2 million | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Kevin Lincoln’s cash on hand | $682,000 | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Out-of-state donations to Gray from New York | $278,000 | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Out-of-state donations to Gray from Massachusetts | $224,000 | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Out-of-state donations to Lincoln from Texas | $278,000 | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
| Out-of-state donations to Lincoln from Florida | $225,000 | October 29, 2026 | ABC30 Fresno |
What happened
Adam Gray, the Democratic incumbent representing California’s 13th Congressional District, is facing former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln in a closely watched race. Gray, who won the seat in 2024 by just 187 votes, is running on a moderate platform focused on bipartisanship, water access for farmers, agriculture, and healthcare. Lincoln, endorsed by President Trump and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, is emphasizing cutting government spending, lowering taxes, and securing the border.
Who is affected
The race directly impacts over 348,208 registered voters across Merced, Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera, and Fresno counties, where the outcome could shift control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Progressive voters, who make up a minority but growing segment of the district, may feel less represented by Gray’s centrist approach, while moderate and independent voters could be swayed by his bipartisan record.
The financial disparity between Gray and Lincoln is stark: Gray’s campaign has raised $5 million while Lincoln’s totals $2.89 million, with Gray holding nearly double the cash on hand at $1.2 million compared to Lincoln’s $682,000. Out-of-state donations also highlight the candidates’ national support, with Gray receiving $278,000 from New York and $224,000 from Massachusetts, while Lincoln’s top out-of-state contributions came from $278,000 in Texas and $225,000 in Florida.
What to do next
Voters in the 13th District should review the candidates’ stances on key issues like water infrastructure, border security, and healthcare, as well as their records on bipartisanship. Gray’s focus on centrist policies and Lincoln’s hardline Republican messaging could determine which voters prioritize stability or ideological alignment. Early voting and mail-in ballots are available, with Election Day set for November 4, 2026.
What we know and don’t know
We know Gray’s campaign strategy centers on appealing to both Democrats and Republicans, while Lincoln’s platform aligns closely with Trump’s priorities. However, we don’t yet know how voter turnout will shift due to the district’s new boundaries under Proposition 50, nor do we have final polling data on how progressive voters will respond to Gray’s moderate approach.
Timeline of Adam Gray’s campaign
- 2012–2022: Served in the California State Assembly, representing Merced and Stanislaus counties.
- November 5, 2024: Won the 13th District seat by 187 votes, flipping a district Trump carried.
- June 2026: Secured 42% of the vote in the primary, finishing first among four candidates.
- October 29, 2026: Campaign fundraising figures reported, showing Gray’s $5 million advantage over Lincoln.
Why it matters
The 13th District race is a bellwether for California’s political landscape, as its outcome could influence House control and set a precedent for how progressive and moderate Democrats navigate the midterms. Gray’s ability to maintain his seat despite a Trump-endorsed challenger could signal broader voter dissatisfaction with extreme partisan policies, while Lincoln’s campaign reflects the GOP’s strategic focus on high-stakes districts.
Frequently asked questions
What is Proposition 50, and how does it affect the 13th District?
Proposition 50, approved by voters, redrew California’s congressional districts to make them more competitive and reduce partisan gerrymandering. The 13th District now leans slightly more Democratic, incorporating parts of Merced, Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera, and Fresno counties, which could benefit Gray’s re-election bid.
How did Adam Gray win the 13th District in 2024?
Gray won by 187 votes in 2024, flipping a seat that had previously been held by Republican John Duarte. His victory was notable because it occurred in a district that President Trump carried, highlighting the district’s competitive nature and Gray’s ability to appeal to a broad voter base.
What are the key issues in this race?
The race centers on water access for farmers, agriculture, healthcare, bipartisanship, and economic policies. Gray emphasizes infrastructure and collaboration, while Lincoln focuses on reducing government spending, lowering taxes, and securing the border.
Who endorsed Kevin Lincoln?
Lincoln received endorsements from President Donald Trump and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. His campaign also gained support from Merced County’s Sheriff Vern Warnke, a key figure in the local Republican base.
How much money has each candidate spent on advertising?
The sources do not specify exact ad spending figures, but Gray’s campaign has raised $5 million in total, while Lincoln’s totals $2.89 million. Both campaigns are investing heavily in digital and television advertising in the final stretch of the campaign.
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Sources
- Adam Gray faces Kevin Lincoln in California's 13th Congressional District race — cbsnews.com, 2026-11-03
- As progressive campaigns grow more popular, Democrat Adam Gray is focused on the center — kvpr.org, 2026-11-02
- California House District 13 General Election Results 2026 — nbcnews.com, 2026-11-03
- Rep. Adam Gray talks immigration, socialism and Trump. ‘Not symbolic nonsense’ — yahoo.com, 2026-09-24
- Campaign spending surges in race for California's 13th Congressional District — abc30.com, 2026-10-29