San Juan River to crest 4 feet above 1911 record: evacuations ordered in southwest Colorado
m. Sunday, nearly 4 feet higher than the 1911 flood that destroyed much of the town, according to the National Weather Service’s Grand Junction office.
The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is forecast to crest at 21.84 feet by 11 p.m. Sunday, nearly 4 feet higher than the 1911 flood that destroyed much of the town, according to the National Weather Service’s Grand Junction office. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for 1,000 homes across Archuleta County.
Key numbers
| Stat | Figure | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| River crest forecast | 21.84 feet | 11 p.m. Sunday | National Weather Service |
| Rainfall expected | 3 inches | Sunday through Monday | National Weather Service |
| Homes under evacuation | 1,000 | October 2026 | Archuleta County |
| Snow forecast (mountains) | 18 inches | Sunday night through Monday | National Weather Service |
What happened
The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is expected to crest at 21.84 feet by 11 p.m. Sunday, surpassing the 1911 flood record by nearly 4 feet. The National Weather Service issued a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" warning, urging immediate evacuations for all low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo, and Piedra rivers. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for the Town of South Fork, parts of Del Norte, and Archuleta County, affecting at least 1,000 homes.
Who is affected
Residents in Archuleta County, Rio Grande County, Conejos County, and the towns of Pagosa Springs, South Fork, and Del Norte are under evacuation orders. Over 1,000 homes in Archuleta County remain at risk, with many still recovering from last week’s flooding. The San Juan River’s rapid rise—now forecast to crest earlier than anticipated—has prompted officials to warn that response capabilities will be severely limited during peak storm conditions.
See the table above for verified figures, including the river’s projected crest, rainfall totals, and the number of homes under evacuation orders.
What to do next
Residents in evacuation zones must leave immediately, as first responders may not be able to reach them during the storm. Shelters are open at Open Door Church (Pagosa Springs), La Plata County Fairgrounds (Durango), and other locations. Small animals can go to the Humane Society, while larger animals must be taken to the Archuleta County Fairgrounds. Incoming traffic into Pagosa Springs is banned starting at 2 p.m. Sunday.
What we know and don’t know
However, we don’t yet know the full extent of infrastructure damage, as major roads and bridges remain at risk of collapse. The saturated ground will exacerbate flooding, and debris flows could worsen downstream impacts.
Timeline of Mandatory Evacuation Orders
Why it matters
This flooding event could surpass the 1911 disaster, which destroyed much of Pagosa Springs. The combination of rapid river rise, saturated ground, and limited response capabilities increases the risk of widespread damage to homes, roads, and critical infrastructure. The economic impact could exceed $65 million in highway repairs alone, as previously reported.
Frequently asked questions
What should I do if I’m in an evacuation zone?
Leave immediately—do not wait for water to rise or for another warning. Shelters are open at Open Door Church (Pagosa Springs), La Plata County Fairgrounds (Durango), and other locations. Small animals can go to the Humane Society, while larger animals must be taken to the Archuleta County Fairgrounds.
Will roads and bridges be damaged?
Yes. Officials warn that major roads and bridges—many damaged in last week’s flooding—could collapse, especially with large debris flowing downstream. Incoming traffic into Pagosa Springs is already banned starting at 2 p.m. Sunday.
How much rain is expected?
The National Weather Service forecasts 3 inches of rain in Pagosa Springs through Monday, with up to 18 inches of snow in the mountains. The saturated ground will worsen flooding risks.
Are there any shelters open?
Yes. The American Red Cross has opened shelters at:
- La Plata County Fairgrounds, Durango
- Pagosa Lakes Property HOA Clubhouse, Pagosa Springs
- Knights of Columbus, La Jara
- Open Door Church, Pagosa Springs
Why is the river rising so fast?
The river is rising faster than anticipated due to sustained heavy rainfall—3 inches expected through Monday—combined with saturated ground that cannot absorb additional water. The National Weather Service has issued a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" warning, indicating dangerous and impactful flooding is likely.
How can I stay updated?
Check the Pagosa Springs Flood Recovery page or contact the Archuleta County Incident Call Center at 970-508-9928 (8 a.m.–10 p.m.). The National Weather Service’s Grand Junction office also provides real-time updates.
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Sources
- Mandatory evacuation orders issued as historic flooding expected in southwest Colorado — denver7.com, 2026-11-01
- Cross-country storm could make Election Day soggy in part of central US — yahoo.com, 2026-11-01
- San Juan River now forecast to rise 4 feet higher than 1911 historic flood in Pagosa Springs — coloradosun.com, 2026-11-01
- Southern Colorado rivers expected to crest higher; Archuleta County officials urge evacuation — denverpost.com, 2026-10-31