Democrats surge in final Senate polls: Texas and Kansas now competitive
The shift follows a 10-point drop in Trump’s approval since 2025 and a 12-point drop since 2018, when Democrats won the national vote by 9 points.
The shift follows a 10-point drop in Trump’s approval since 2025 and a 12-point drop since 2018, when Democrats won the national vote by 9 points.
Key numbers
| Stat | Figure | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic lead in Texas | 7 points | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Democratic lead in Kansas | 5 points | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Trump’s approval in battlegrounds | 38% | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Trump’s approval drop since 2025 | 10 points | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Trump’s approval drop since 2018 | 12 points | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Favorable view of Texas AG Ken Paxton | 33% | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Unfavorable view of Texas AG Ken Paxton | 54% | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Favorable view of Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall | 39% | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Unfavorable view of Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall | 50% | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Hispanic voter lead for Texas Dem James Talarico | 38 points | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Undecided voters favoring Republicans in last month | 9 points | 2026-11-02 | New York Times/Siena poll |
| Republican ad spending in Ohio | $80 million | 2026-11-02 | AdImpact |
What happened
The shift follows a 10-point drop in Trump’s approval since 2025 and a 12-point drop since 2018, when Democrats won the national vote by 9 points.
The polls reveal Democrats leading by 7 points in Texas and 5 points in Kansas, with record-low favorability ratings for Republican incumbents: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (33% favorable, 54% unfavorable) and Kansas Senator Roger Marshall (39% favorable, 50% unfavorable). Democrats also lead in Maine, Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa, while trailing by 1 point in Alaska.
Who is affected
Voters in Texas and Kansas are most directly affected, as Democrats now have a realistic chance to flip Senate seats in states not won by their party in decades. Hispanic voters in Texas, who were evenly split in the 2024 presidential race, now back Democratic candidate James Talarico by 38 points. Meanwhile, Republican-leaning voters in battlegrounds like Ohio and Iowa face a stark choice: Trump’s approval ratings are under 40% in these states, down from over 50% in 2018.
See the table above for verified figures from the New York Times/Siena polls and AdImpact data.
What to do next
Voters in the seven battleground states should review their polling locations and registration status before Election Day on November 4, 2026. Democrats are urging supporters to turn out early, given the late surge in their favor, while Republicans are focusing on mobilizing their base amid concerns about low turnout among undecided voters.
What we know and don’t know
We know Democrats are leading in Texas and Kansas by 7 and 5 points, respectively, and that Trump’s approval ratings are at historic lows (38%) in battlegrounds. However, we don’t yet know how turnout will play out, as undecided voters who decided in the last month favor Republicans by 9 points. Additionally, the accuracy of polls remains uncertain due to persistent nonresponse bias among Republican-leaning voters.
Timeline
- October 2025: Trump’s approval ratings begin to decline sharply, falling to 38% in battlegrounds by November 2026.
- September 2026: New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats improving in six of seven battleground states.
- October 2026: Trump’s approval ratings drop to 38% in battlegrounds, down 10 points since 2025 and 12 points since 2018.
- November 2, 2026: Final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats leading in Texas (7 points), Kansas (5 points), Maine, Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa, with Alaska effectively tied.
- November 4, 2026: Midterm elections held; results determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Why it matters
If Democrats win control of the Senate, it would mark a historic shift in a polarized era, flipping seats in traditionally red states like Texas and Kansas. The outcome could also signal voter dissatisfaction with Trump’s presidency, given his record-low approval ratings (38%) and the economic challenges facing the country. For Republicans, maintaining Senate control hinges on turning out their base, which has shown signs of waning enthusiasm.
How Democrats are winning in red states
Democrats are gaining ground in red states by leveraging unpopularity of Republican incumbents—Texas AG Ken Paxton (33% favorable) and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (39% favorable)—and strong candidates like James Talarico (Texas) and Adam Hamilton (Kansas), who have high favorability ratings and appeal to religious voters. Additionally, Democrats are outperforming Republicans among Hispanic voters in Texas and younger voters across battlegrounds.
How Republicans are responding
Republicans are focusing on mobilizing their base amid concerns about low turnout among undecided voters, who favor Republicans by 9 points. They are also spending heavily on ads—$80 million in Ohio alone—to counter Democratic gains. However, Trump’s unpopularity (38% approval) and economic challenges may limit their ability to compete in blue or purple states.
Frequently asked questions
What are the key Senate battlegrounds in 2026?
The key Senate battlegrounds in 2026 are Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Alaska. Democrats are leading in all but Alaska, where the race is effectively tied.
Why are Democrats leading in Texas and Kansas?
Democrats are leading in Texas and Kansas due to unpopularity of Republican incumbents (Paxton at 33% favorable, Marshall at 39% favorable) and strong Democratic candidates like James Talarico and Adam Hamilton, who have high favorability ratings and appeal to religious and Hispanic voters.
How accurate are these polls?
The polls show Democrats leading in key states, but historical precedent suggests polling errors can occur, particularly among Republican-leaning voters who are less likely to respond. The 2020 polls underestimated Trump by 5 points, while 2018 polls were accurate. This cycle, Democrats are responding to polls at a higher rate than Republicans, which could skew results.
What is the significance of Trump’s approval rating?
Trump’s approval rating of 38% in battlegrounds is the lowest for a president heading into a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946. His unpopularity may make it difficult for Republicans to compete in blue or purple states, as his support has dropped 10 points since 2025 and 12 points since 2018.
How much does the economy affect these races?
Democrats hold a 9-point advantage on handling the cost of living across battlegrounds, which is a key motivating issue for voters. Economic concerns, including diesel prices and inflation, are contributing to Democratic gains in states like Kansas and Texas.
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Sources
- The final polls show a blue surge. Can we trust them? — inquirer.com, 2026-11-02
- The Governor’s Race That 2028 Democrats Need to Watch — yahoo.com, 2026-10-25
- Democrats ahead of Republicans in almost all key battleground states, polls find — irishtimes.com, 2026-11-02
- outsidethebeltway.com — outsidethebeltway.com, 2026-11-02